MATH1530 RESOURCE PAGE
                    http://www.etsu.edu/math/seier/1530/1530link.htm
Information you will find in this Web page:

         The basics:


The STAT CAVE at ETSU  -

Created with a grant from the National Science Foundation
(NSF-DUE 0126682)
and ETSU (TAF) funds.

 

STUDY GUIDE FOR SPRING 2006

FINAL !!!CLICK HERE

GENERAL INFORMATION
Course Goal: To develop a basic understanding of probability and statistics and how they relate to the world around us. 

FINAL EXAM IN THE SPRING  SEMESTER 2006 will be : 
Saturday, April 29,  2006 at 1:00 pm
Rooms will be announced during dead week
(See more information about grading and attendance policy below)

TEXBOOK for Spring  Semester 2006: 
Moore, D.S.  (2003) The Basic Practice of Statistics . 3rd edition.

Software : Most sections will use MINITAB in class. Minitab is  available in all the computer labs at ETSU. 

Note.- Students who acquried the 'bundle' have on addition to the textbook and studyguide a student version of Minitab. There are other options available to acquire or rent Minitab for students that want to have it at home but this is not required, students will find Minitab in all the computers on Campus under 'Statistical Software' .
  Calculator. (instructions prepared by C. Robe) can be found in
Requirements of calculator vary with instructor. For those sections that require the Sharp Calculator,
Intructions for the Sharp Calculator for  mean, variance etc.

Intructions to use the Sharp Calculator for regression and  correlation

For students who already have a TI-83 calculator:
Instructions for Texas Instrument calculator: mean and variance 
                                                                   regression and Correlation

DATA SETS   The data sets mentioned in the textbook are in the CD-Rom that comes with the book.  Data sets from sources other than the textbook are accesible through this Web page.

 FORMULA SHEET 
 The formula sheet and tables to be used on the final exam will be a card similar to the insert in the text book.  Here there is also a page with the main formulas

Where to get help with this course?

1) Your instructor (check your instructor's office hours in the Syllabus for your section) 

2) Math Lab - Warf Pickel 308 - (Tentative) Hours for the Fall Semester (Opens Septermber 6,2005): 
  Monday to Thursday from 11 am to 7 pm.
  Sunday 1-5 pm

3) OPEN LAB  in the Stat- Cave . The Stat-cave is open for individual work and study several times during the week. Check the schedule on the board outside the StatCave.
 

4)Free University [Group] Tutoring :
Location:  Room 222 Rogers-Stout Hall
Hours:  Monday and Thursday 4:00 pm 5:00 pm

Contact :  UTS (University Tutoring Services) 439-4758

5) On-Line:
From Blackboard, log-in and click [Courses] Under Course Catalog, click [Tutoring].  To the right of Probability  & Statistics Tutoring, click [Enroll] or [Submit].
 

6) Student Support Services, NURSE Center, Athletics, Disability Services, and others offer tutoring services.  Check with them to see if you qualify.
 


 

Your success in this course depends on the time in the course. We recommend:

  • Study and read before attending the lectures. keep up with the course.
  • Devote a little Time to studying statistics each day, rather than a large amount once a week.
  • Take an Active role in learning. Come to class and participate.
  • Tutor each other. If you feel that you are lost help is out there; see your instructor/tutor early. Don't wait until the last minute.

 
 
GRADING AND ATTENDANCE POLICY
 

DEPARTMENTAL FINAL EXAMINATION REQUIREMENT FOR MATH 1530:

  1. A comprehensive departmental final examination will be administered in MATH 1530 (Probability & Statistics). 
    For the Spring Semester 2006  the exam will be held Saturday, April 29,2006 at 1:00 p.m.  Rooms will be announced during dead week.
  2. Important: each student must have a current, official ETSU ID card to take final exam.
  3. The Final Examination will count 25%   of each student’s grade.  For extremely low scores on the Final Examination (less than 100 points of the maximum of 250 points), the student will be assigned a semester grade of F.
  4. The purposes of this program are to increase learning, enhance quality control and minimize grade disparity among instructors.

GRADING FOR THE COURSE:  The grade will be based on a possible 1000 points (250 from the Final Examination , 50 from practice quizzes and 700 determined by the instructor).  The scale follows:
                                         A       950 – 1000              A-     900 – 949 
B+     880 – 899               B       820 – 879                B-    800 -   819 
C+    780 – 799                C       720 – 779                C-    700 – 719 
D+    650 -   699               D      600 – 649 
                                          F       less than 600

BONUS FOR PERFECT ATTENDANCE (after the first week of classes):  50 points will be added to above before grade is assigned.  However, the 50 points may be decreased.
There will be no deductions for absences during the first week of classes.  After the first week, the bonus will be reduced as follows:
 For classes meeting 2 times per week:  10 points will be deducted per absence. 
 

DEPARTMENTAL ATTENDANCE REQUIREMENTS:
(approved by department vote on February 28, 1994; revised July 1999*)
The Department of Mathematics strongly advises students to attend all mathematics classes when physically able.  Because there is a positive correlation between attendance and student success in mathematics, the following attendance guidelines will be used in all mathematics courses.  Regardless of the reasons for the absences, should a student exceed the following limits, the instructor has the authority to assign a grade of FN or W; this policy takes precedence  over the grade assignment policy for MATH 1710 and MATH 1530:
7    absences for classes scheduled for MWF.
 5  absences for classes scheduled for TR or MW classes or
  any other 2 day/night classes.
 3 absences for classes scheduled for one evening per week.
 9 absences for all daytime sections of 4-hour classes.
* FOR SUMMER COURSES:       5 absences for classes scheduled MTWXF.

 

LINKS TO INDIVIDUAL  INSTRUCTORS'S


BLACKBOARD CONNECTION
 

Lyndell Kerley   Blackboard connection
Udema Millsaps  Blackboard connection
JoAnne Pumariega Blackboard connection

 

ISOLVE : Instructions and Web Site Addresses

Instructions for Isolve (The use of this system varies according to the instructor):
List of questions chapter by chapter
How to use Isolve
How to register to use Isolve


MATERIAL CHAPTER BY CHAPTER

CHAPTER 1: Picture Distributions with Graphs
SKILLS &
KNOWLEDGE
in Chapter 1




Chapter 1. After reading this chapter make sure you can:
  1. Identify individuals and variables in a given story. (See Who? How many? What? Why? questions on page 4)
  2. Distinguish between Categorical and Quantitative variables
  3. Based on the nature of the variable, be able to decide which graph is appropriate for a given data set:
  • Histograms and Stemplots (Stem-and-Leaf display)?
  • Bar o Pie Charts?
  • Time Plots?
4. Understand what a histogram or stemplot tells you about the behavior of the variable. What is a bimodal or an skewed left or skewed right distribution telling you? 


HOMEWORK Chapter 1
We recommend that you practice with exercises: 1.1,1.2,1.4,1.5,1.6,1.7,1.8,1.9,1.16,1.21,1.23,1.24,1.30
Your instructor might assign  specific homework to be graded.
 
 

IN THE LAB
Chapter  1

Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for graphing and displaying data
1)Lab 'Drugs' :
The purpose of this lab is to get familiar with data files and do basic graphs for categorical and quantitative variables
data file:  drugsurv.mtw (data from drug and alcohol survey in a state for the Midwest)
(variables in this data set are : gender, years of education, smoking status, having tried marijuana and alcohol dependency)
  A more simple version of that lab that can be used the first day in the lab to introduce students to the use of Minitab can be found in : plabdrugs.doc
2)Work  1.37, 1.35, 1.27 from the book
 
3) Explore and discuss the distribution of the variables in one or more  of these data files
a)
surveys02.mtw     (Has categorical and quantitative variables: gender, age, number of siblings etc. of students in a section of Math 1530)
b) Pulse rate of 210 students of the MATH1530 course  pulserate.mtw     pulserate.sav(Interpret the shape, what pulse rates are more common,? which ones are less frequent?)
c)
Age at time of death, sample of 135 graves from Greenhill cemetery Laramie,WYO, data include people who died in the period 1860-1998) (Why does the distribution of age at time of death  looks bimodal? Get also separate graphs for those who died before and after 1950 )  Greenhill.mtw  
d)
Unemployement in Tennesse. This data set contains the monthly unemployement rate in Tennessee from January 1978 to April 1999. TennUnEm.mtw      Obtain a histogram and interpret it. Obtain a time plot and interpret it.

4)
Using applets from the WWW. The applet (from Rice University) at http://www.ruf.rice.edu/%7Elane/stat_sim/histogram/index.htm
allows to explore how a interval width affects the shape of the histogram

 

In the real world Chapter 1

Statistics is a useful tool to explore the real world.
Here are some data files with real data. Think of the context of the data, get acquainted with the variables and identify the type of each variable :
1) 
SAT related variables for 50 States and DC (Moore's Basic Practice of Statistics) Minitab: SAT.mtw
                                                                                                              SPSS: SAT.sav

2) Demographic and economic data from for 97 countries (from Rouncefield, M. (1995)  The Statistics of Poverty and Inequality . Journal of Statistics Education v.3, n.2 (1995)  (data source : United Nations in 1990). (Variables in this data file are :
(birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate, life expectancy for males and females, gross national product)
Minitab: poverty.mtw                   SPSS: poverty.sav

 3) Exercises 1.31,1,32,and 1.33 put you in contact with real data from the USA

 
Related  readings 
for instructors 
Ideas on how to use a data set with demographic and economic variables for 97 countries produced by the United Nations :
Rouncefield, M. (1995)  The Statistics of Poverty and Inequality . Journal of Statistics Education v.3, n.2 (1995)


 
CHAPTER 2: Describing distributions with numbers
SKILLS &
KNOWLEDGE
in Chapter 2

 
Chapter 2. After reading this chapter make sure you know how to:
  1. Calculate and interpret the values of mean, median, quartiles, five summary number, standard deviation,
  2. Draw a boxplot & are able to compare several data sets in terms of center and spread by looking at the side by side boxplots.
  3. Decide if an observation is an outlier using the 1.5 IQR rule
  4. Relate the skweness of the distribution to the relative position of mean and median
  5. Relate standard deviation with a histogram
  6. Also you should be aware of how extreme observations affect numerical summaries

HOMEWORK
Chapter 2
We recommend you practice with exercises: 2.1,2.2,2.3,2.6,2.7,,2.8,2.13,2.16,2.24,2.29
Your instructor might assign  specific homework to be graded.


In the
 classroom

These are activities/worksheets  that can be worked in the classroom. They do not require the use of computers.
1) doctors    (5-number summaries, stemplots, histograms, mean, outliers; with emphasis in interpretations)
2) Softdrinks Version 1. (stem-and-leaf displays )
3) Softdrinks Version 2. (stem-and-leaf displays,  median, quartiles and boxplots)
4) Income of CEOs A worksheet to practice calculating by hand basic statistics and interpreting them  :
5)Gasoline use by stateInterpreting computer output with graphs and basic statistics


IN THE LAB
Chapter 2
Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for Summarizing distributions with numbers

1)Lab Big Toe .- This lab reviews topics of Chapters 1 and 2.

2)Lab Infant Mortality  The objective of this Lab is to interpret the shape of histograms, interpret side by side boxplots, calculate and interpret basic statistics. It reviews topics from Chapters 1 and 2.  It  uses Rouncefield's poverty data (Variables in this data set are birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate, life expectancy for males and females, gross national product for each one of 97  countries)  
Minitab: poverty.mtw   

3) Lab SAT scores
(Statistics and graphs for quantitative variables) SAT scores  for 50 States and DC (Moore's Basic Practice of Statistics) (Variables are SAT Math and Verbal average scores, % of high school seniors taking the SAT,  etc.)  Minitab: SAT.mtw      

4) Lab Baseball  A short Lab  with the baseball players salaries (histogram, median, mean, side by side boxplots)

5) Work exercises 2.38 or 2.39 in the book. For data files click here Oldfaithful  , Calories   or look for them in the CD that comes with the book.(BPS-student>EESEE>data files >(name)> mtw)

5) Using applets from the CD (just use Explore and click on the applet)
The applet in  :\BPS - Student\BPS3e\content\applets\meanmedian.html  allows you to place points (data) where ever you want, shows the dotplot and locates the mean and the median. Useful to explore the relationship among mean , median and the skewness of the distribution.

In the real world

1)
Olympic files : data files with results from the 2004 Olympic games prepared by Susan Hosler . 
Different strokes for different folks: Finish times for swimmers competing in various distance final events. Side-by-side boxplots make a nice display.
                                                       Women's 100m Back, Breast, Butterfly & Freestyle                    OlymF100_Swim.mtw
                                                       Women's 200m Back, Breast, Butterfly, Freestyle & Medley     OlymF200_Swim.mtw
                                                       Men's 100m Back, Breast ,Butterfly & Freestyle                        OlymM100_Swim.mtw
                                                       Men's 200m  Back, Breast, Butterfly, Breestyle & Medley          OlymM200_Swim.mtw
Smells like Team Spirit:
Compare the finish times of individuals versus versus teams for the 800meter women's swimming events.    OlymF800_Swim.mtw
Beam me up Scottie: Compare scores earned by symnasts cometing in the All-around events on different apparati. Which apparatus gives the most difficulty to each gender? OlymGymnast.mtw

2)Look at exercises  2.33. Data of the census can be found at http://www.census.gov
Interesting data originally published by the United Nations can be found in Minitab: poverty.mtw  . Source:  Rouncefield, M. (1995)  The Statistics of Poverty and Inequality . Journal of Statistics Education v.3, n.2 (1995) 
(birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate, life expectancy for males and females, gross national product for 97 conutries in 1990)
             

 


 
CHAPTER 3 Normal Distribution

Skills & Knowledge
in Chapter 3
After studying this chapter, you should :
  • know what is a density curve and what is the total area under it
  • be able to sketch the density curve given the mean and standard deviation of a normal distribution
  • apply the  68-95-99.7 rule
  • be able to calculte z-scores ('standardization')
  •  find the area (proportions & percentiles)  to the left or right of a given value of x or z .
  • given an area (to the left or the right ) under the normal curve, find the value of z (and x)
  • use your knowledge of the normal distribution to solve word problems (example: exercises 3.20-3.22


HOMEWORK
for Chapter 3
 We recommend that you practice with exercises: 3.1,3.4,3.7,3.9,3.10,3.11,3.13,3.14-3.17,3.20&3.21,3.24,3.27
Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded.
 


In the Classroom
Chapter3
These activities do not require the use of computers
1)A worksheet to introduce the idea of of standardization
2) Exercises  to practice the use of the normal table and problems related to the normal distribution

For Instructors : standnorm.gif   a file with the graph of the normal distribution that can be used when preparing material on this topic


IN THE LAB
in Chapter 3
Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE about the Normal distribution
1)
Lab Normal- Given a value finding an area, given an area finding a value, checking for normality (pulserat.mtw) & imulating normal data 

2)  Normal model and the Soda data . A lab to discuss if the normal model is appropriate for a given case ,  data file soda.mtw

3) Applets from different sources :
                 Applet to calculate areas under the normal curve (U. Berkeley)
                 Applet to draw normal curves (input: mean and std) and calculate areas under the curve (Rossman-Chance collection)
                 Applet about normal approximation to histograms (U. Berkeley)

4) Exercises 3.30-3.32 use applets available in the CD  (just use Explore and click on the applet)
\BPS - Student\BPS3e\content\applets\normalcurve.html
or at http://www.whfreeman.com/bps3e    (registration is required)


 


 
CHAPTERS 4 & 5   Scatter Plots,  Correlation, Regression

Skills in Chapters
 4 & 5
After studying these chapters, you should :
  • know for what type of variables r can be calculated , its main properties and limitations,  and how to interpret it
  • be able to interpret an scatter plot and its relation with the value of r
  • know how to interpret the value of the slope (don't forget the units), and the intercept (when interpretation is appropriate)
  • understand the least square principle and know how to calculate (using computer or calculator) the estimated value  of slope and intercept
  • know what residuals are and be able to interpret residual plots
  • know how to evaluate a model using R-square
  • be familiar with the notion of outliers, influential data, lurking variable, extrapolation
  • understand that association does not imply necessarily a cause-effect relationship
  • be aware of the dangers of extrapolation and the possible existence of lurking variables.

HOMEWORK
Chapter 4  & readings
We recommend that you practice with the following exercises:
Chapter 4: 4.1,4.2,4.4,4.5,4.6,4.8,4.10,4.11,4.12,4.14,4.15,4.28
Chapter 5:  5.1,5.2,5.3,5.5,5.7,5.9,5.10,5.11,5.12,5.13,5.14,5.19,5.26,5.29,5.31,5.32,5.36
Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded.
  In this note you can see the calculation of the correlation coeffiicient (r) step by step
 

IN THE LAB
Chap. 4 & 5
Ideas that can be used in the Stat Cave for regression and correlation:
1) Lab Body Fat. (correlation and regression) Which is better predictor of body fat; waist or weight?  Uses the data file bodyfat.mtw
2)
Lab Wine-Heart (correlation and regression) Are wine consumption and heart disease related? Uses the data file wineheart.mtw  

3) LAB OldFaithful  Correlation 
Are the length of eruption and  the time until next eruption related?  oldfaithful.mtw
4)
LAB OldFaithful  Regression  Can we predict when the next eruption of OldFaithful will be?  data: oldfaithful.mtw

5) This is a very appropriate data set to discuss outliers in regression : Cigarette and lung cancer (Friedman et.al) cigaret.mtw cigarret.sav     Obtain the scatter plot, fit the regression equation with and without the observation for the USA and compare R-square for both models.

6) Using Applets  in the WWW:
a) Guessing the value of r from a scatter plot : 

University of Illinois applet                                           Rice U 'Regression by eye' applet

b)To discuss leverage and influential points:
  You place the points with the mouse where you want and the (U of Illinois) applet calculates r and the regression line 
Y ou move the points, displays r, SSE and line Calpoly Linear Regression Applet
You move one point, displays r and lineWest's Regression Applet

7) Using applets from the CD    \BPS - Student\BPS3e\content\applets\correlationregression.html (just use Explore and click on the applet)

 

In the classroom
Chapters  4&5
Class summary to introduce correlation (step by step calculation) and regression intcorreg.doc

A summary of the ideas of outliers & influential points in regression using the famous cigarette & lung cancer example: outliers.doc
This worksheet can be worked in the classroom, no computer is required

1) Are drinking wine and heart disease associated? A worksheet based on a data set  from Moore, D "The Basic Practice of Statistics" ( Data file  wineheart.mtw   or wine-heart.sav)

In the real world
More Olympic files : data files with results from the 2004 Olympic games prepared by Susan Hosler .

It ain't over till it's (almost) over:           OlymM20K_Walk.mtw
Which increment of the men's 20 km walk best predicts the amount of time required to finish the race? Walker's times at 2,4,6,8,10,12,15,16,18 and 20 Km. (hint: look at scatter plots, look at the squared correlation at 18 km and 20 km)


 

Readings for Instructors
A Brief History of Regression


 
CHAPTER 6
Two-Way tables

Skills in
Chapter 6
After studying this chapter, you should :
  • Know how to produce a two way table from raw data for two categorical (or categorized) variables
  • be able to get marginal and conditional distributions from a two way table
  • feel comfortable interpreting 'row and column percentages' (conditional distributions) and compare groups based on that interpretation



HOMEWORK
for Chap. 6
 We recommend that you practice with the following exercises:
Chapter 6:  6.1,6.2,6.3,6.4,6.5,6.7,6.8,6.12,6.15,6.16,6.18,6.19,6.21
Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded.
 

In the Lab
Chapter 6
Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for two-way tables
1) LAB Drugs-Two Way. We work again with the file drugsurv.mtw (data from drug and alcohol survey in a state for the Midwest) now trying to compare females and males and to observe associations between variables.
2) You can produce your own two-way tables for gender or class and survival with the Titanic Data . Did the same percent of males and females survived? Did the same percent of women survive in the first class  than in the third class?
Titanic Data : Gender, class, and survival for the Titanic adult passangers (crew not included). Minitab: Atitanic.mtw

Readings for instructors Robert J. MacG. Dawson   (1995 The "Unusual Episode" Data RevisitedJournal of Statistics Education v.3, n.3  )


 
CHAPTER 7
PRODUCING DATA : SAMPLING

Skills in
Chapter 7

After studying this chapter, you should :                
  • distinguish between an experiment and a survey
  • know the difference between population and a sample
  • understand how bias can enter into samples or results
  • be familiar with the survey & sampling basic vocabulary including types of random sampling
  • know that individuals in the sample have to be randomly selected
  • be able to select a simple random sample from a sampling frame
  • know the consequences of incomplete/dated sampling frames and non-random sampling
HOMEWORK  We recommend that you practice with the following exercises:
Chapter 7 7.1,7.2,7.3,7.4,7.5,7.6,7.7,7.13,7.14,7.15,7.16,7.17,7.18,7.19,7.20,7.21,7.22,7.30,7.31,7.34,7.36,7.37,7.39,7.41,7.42
The following exercises require the use of random number tables (the use of tables is decided by the instructor of your section)
7.8,7.9,7.10,7.11,7.12

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded

 14 multiple choice questions on experimental and observational studies  hwsurexp.doc

IN THE LAB
in Chapter 7
Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for Surveys
1) A class summary on surveys to introduce the topic using internet and software (Minitab) resources surveysinlab
2) Short Lab on random sampling,  uses
he data set :  agepop.mtw

3) Random selection : 
Activity/Lab:  Selecting things at random: from raffles to samples- Hats, dice, tables and computers
This lab introduces in a 'hands on way' random generation of numbers by different random mechanisms and the selection of random samples

 4) Lab on Random Samples      using the data set :  agepop.mtw To learn how to select samples using the computer and to explore the ideas of sampling variability and sampling distributions


In the real world
To learn  more about organizing surveys: ASA brochures on Surveys (detailed brochures on different aspects of surveys)

Two opposite examples of surveys : 
National Geographic's Survey 2000 (large sample but not random, for whom are the results valid? )
The Gallup Poll  (relatively small RANDOM sample, for whom are the results valid? ) Give a look to the Gallup Poll of the week

More about the Census in the USA :    CENSUS: main page and teacher's page
For links to more national surveys places

 


 
CHAPTER 8
PRODUCING DATA: EXPERIMENTS

Skills in
chapter 8

 After studying this chapter, you should :                
  • distinguish between an experiment and an observational study
  • be familiar with the basic vocabulary of experimental design
  • Understand what constitutes a randomized comparative experiment
  • be able to identify subjects, factors & treatments in a given story
  • know the basic types of experimental designs (double blind,completely randomized, block, matched pairs,etcetera)
  • know the basic principles of Experimental Design: Control , Rnadomize, Replication.
  • Understand the meaning of statistical significance and when does it imply causation


HOMEWORK
We recommend that you practice with the following exercises:
Chapter 8 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.7 , 8.8, 8.9, 8.12, 8.13, 8.14, 8.16, 8.18, 8.20, 8.23, 8.25, 8.26 8.35, 8.37, 8.39
The following exercises require the use of random number tables (the use of tables is decided by the instructor of your section)

8.4,8.5,8.6
Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded



In the classroom
chapter 8
These activities  can be done in the classroom or assigned as homework, no computer is required
1) Activity on Experimental Design
The vocabulary of experimental design and the principles of randomization, replication and control, as well as the estrategy of blocking to control for sources of variability are reviewed in this activity using three cases.
2) 14 multiple choice questions on experimental and observational studies  hwsurexp.doc


IN THE LAB
Chapter 8
Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for experiments

Lab on Experimental design
This Lab focuses on the application of the Randomization principle to select which individuals will be assigned to each treatment and in which order the experiment will be conducted; but other issues involved in designing experiments are also reviewed.



 
 
CHAPTERS  9 
INTRODUCING PROBABILITY

Skills in
Chapter 9
After studying this chapter, you should :                
  • know what a random phenomenon or a random experiment are
  • know tht chance behavior is unpredictable in the short run but has a regular and predictable pattern in the long run.
  • be familiar with the basic probability vocabulary (sample space, outcomes, event,
  • have an intuitive idea of probability (in the long run....) and a more formal idea through the  basic rules of probability
  • be able to solve simple probability problems
  • know what a random variable and  a probability distribution are
  • be able to interpret and use the information given in a simple probability table for one variable
  • be able to answer simple probability questions based on the information given in  a two-way table
  • know what independent and mutually events are
  • have an idea of what a probability model is
  • know how to find the probability of an event for the normal probability model

HOMEWORK
 We recommend that you practice with the following exercises:
Chapter 9 : 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.4, 9.9, 9.11, 9.12, 9.14 ,9.15, 9.16, 9.20, 9.21, 9.22, 9.23, 9.28, 9.30, 9.36, 9.38, 9.41, 9.44, 9.46

It is to the decision of the instructor to assign 9.5 (applet) & 9.6 (applet)
Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded

IN THE LAB
in Chapter 9
Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for probability
Want to (virtually) flip a coin?
1) Using applets from the CD.
(just use Explore and click on the applet)
The applet     :\BPS - Student\BPS3e\content\applets\probability.html   would flip coins for you and keep track of heads and tails.

2) Using applets in the WWW.  You will find that and generators of random numbers in  http://www.random.org

 Probability as relative frequency in the long run:  Go to http://www.random.org and flip the coin 50 times. Keep track of the number of heads that you get. Based on this experience, what is your estimate for the probability of heads for that coin? (of course 50 realizations of the random experiment of flipping a coin is NOT really the 'long run'). Each student can report how many head he/she got in his/her 50 trials and we can come up with another estimate of the probability.




In the Classroom
 Chapter 9
1) Class summary to introduce the basic of probabilities including random variable. intprobrv.doc
2) This is a class summary to introduce, via examples, probability related topics such as :
Venn Diagrams, calculating conditional & marginal probabilities from two-way tables,  false positives and false negatives in medical tests,  the birthday problem. moreprobability.doc
These activities can be done in the classroom and do not require the use of computers
1) Introducing the idea of random variable

2)False positives in the ELIZA test for Aids
 
 
CHAPTER 10
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS

Skills in
 Chapter 10
After studying these chapter, you should :   
  • be able to distinguish between parameter and statistic in a given story
  • know what the sampling distribution of an statistic (for example, the sample mean) is
  • have a basic understanding of the meaning of the law of large numbers
  • have a basic understanding of the meaning of the central limit theorem and know how to apply it to problems of the type 'what is the probability that the sample mean takes a value greater (or lower) than some value.
  • understand the relationship between sample size and the variability  of the sample mean
  • know what the distribution of the sample mean is for the two cases: x is normal & we don't know if x is normal
  • be able to solve problems of the type: what is the probability that the sample mean takes a value greater (or lower) than.........?

We recommend that you practice with the following exercises:
Chapter 10 : 10.1 , 10.2 , 10.3 , 10.4 10.5, 10.9 , 10.10, 10.11 , 10.16, 10.24, 10.25, 10.26 , 10.27, 10.28 , 10.30 

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded

IN THE LAB
 Chapter 10
Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for sampling distribution
1) A 'hands on' introduction to sampling distributions  intsamdist.doc,
it uses the worksheet sampmeanspop.mtw and applets from the web
2) A Lab to introduce step by step the ideas related to sampling distribution. 
The file with the population to be used in this lab is in agesmoke.mtw  The program to do the simulations in the Lab samdismp.mtb

3) Using APPLETS in the WWW
a) Rice University Lab to do simulations and observe the distribution of the sample mean
b) Applet from U. Berkeley to understand the Law of Large Numbers
c) An applet from the Rossman&Chance collection that randomly selects words from the Gettysburg address and depicts the sampling distribution of a categorical (noun or not noun) and a quantitative (length of word) variable http://statweb.calpoly.edu/chance/applets/GettysburgSample/GettysburgSample.html
3) Using APPLETS in the CD (just use Explore and click on the applet)
The applet   :\BPS - Student\BPS3e\content\applets\expectedvalue.html   rolls a die and could be used for the Law of Large Numbers


In the classroom
Chapter 10

A set of 10 muliple choice questions to review the topic of sampling distribution of a mean









CHAPTER 11
PROBABILITY RULES

Skills
 Chapter 11

After studying this chapter, you should :   
  • know the basic probability rules
  • know how to find conditional probabilities given a two-way table
  • know about tree diagrams and venn diagrams



These activities can be done in the classroom and do not require the use of computers
1) This is a class summary to introduce, via examples, probability related topics such as :
Venn Diagrams, calculating conditional & marginal probabilities from two-way tables,  false positives and false negatives in medical tests,  the birthday problem. moreprobability.doc

2)False positives in the ELIZA test for Aids
3) Applications of probability including conditional probabilities using a two way table with the AIDS example

 
CHAPTER 12
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Skills
 Chapter 12

After studying this chapter, you should :   
  • know what type of situations is that you can apply the binomial distribution to  ('binomial setting')
  • be able to use the binomial table  to answer simple binomial probability problems
  • know the binomial mean and standard deviation

HOMEWORK  Here is a one page introduction to the Binomial distribution binomial.com
Ask your instructor for recommended exercises 

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded

IN THE LAB
Chapter 12
Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for binomial distribution

1) How to create a with MINITAB using the frogs story:  frogsbinomial.doc 
This example prepares the ground for an easy introduction of the idea of test of hypothesis.



In the classroom
These activities can be worked in the classroom, no computer is needed.
1) List of Additional problems on Binomial distribution

   BINOMIAL TABLES s n=2...9    n=10...20

2) More problems on the application of probability models

3) A set of 3 questions, applying binomial probabilities, that help us to understand that events considered 'rare' are not necessarily rare. 

 
 

 
 
CHAPTER 13
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

Skills in
 Chapter 13
After studying these chapter, you should :   
  • know how to calculate and interpret confidence intervals for the population mean
  • have very clear the meaning of 'confidence'
  • understand how the width of the confidence interval and the 'margin of error' depend on sample size, variability and confidence
  • be able to find the appropriate sample size knowing the standard deviation of the population and given the desired confidence and margin of error
  • be aware that the 'margin of error' only accounts for the 'sampling error' ( the fact that not all the element of the population are in the sample) , it does not account for errors in the design and implementation  of the survey such as undercoverage or low response rate.

HOMEWORK
Chapter 13
 We recommend that you practice with the following exercises:
Chapter 13 : Exercises 1 to 12, 14,15,16,18,20,21,22,23,24.25,26,33

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded


In the classroom
Chapter 13
Class summary: An introduction to the ideas of inference using the frogs example

A set of 10 multiple choice questions about test of hypothesis and confidence intervals for the mean actinfmean.doc
 
IN THE LAB
in Chapter 13
Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for confidence intervals

1) Using applets to understand the meaning of confidence
a) from the book. In the CD that comes with the book find this file :  BPS - Student\BPS3e\content\applets\confidenceinterval.html
b) In the WWW: 

 
 
CHAPTER 14 & 15
  TEST OF HYPOTHESES

SKILLS in
Chapter 14
After studying these chapter, you should :   
  • be able to identify and write the null and alternative hypotheses in a given story
  • know how to perform a test of hypotheses about the population mean
  • be able to make a decision about the null hypothesis based on the p-value and to  interpret the value of the p-value
  • be familiar with the basic vocabulary of hypothesis testing (one-sided & two-sided hypothesis, test statistic,p-value, statistical significant, significance level)
  • know the connection between a test of hypothesis and a confidence interval
  • be aware of the difference between statistical significance and practical significance

HOMEWORK
Chapters 14 & 15

We recommend that you practice with the following exercises:
Chapter 14   1 to 22; 26,27,28,34,35,36,37,38,44,45,46
Chapter 15  1-7; 13 14a, 14b, 15a, 18a, 18b, 25,26

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded

 
IN THE LAB chapter 14 Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for test of hypothesis

The new ducks story : Introduces the ideas of hypothesis testing, shows how to do it using the exact (binomial)and approximate (normal) method by hand and using Minitab. It covers also the material of Chapter 18


In the Classroom
in Chapter 14
A worksheet to introduce the ideas of testing hypothesis based on the binomial distribution
 Test of Hypothesis (the ducks story)

A set of 10 multiple choice questions about test of hypothesis and confidence intervals for the mean actinfmean.doc


 
 
 
CHAPTER 16  INFERENCE ABOUT THE POPULATION MEAN

Skills Chapter 16
After studying these chapter, you should :  
  • have an idea of what is the t-distribution and its relationship to the normal distribution
  • the necessary conditions to apply the t-test and t-confidence interval
  • know what the standard error is
  • know  to perform and interpret the results of one sample  t - test
  • know  to perform and interpret the results of matched pairs  t - test
  • be able to calculate and interpret a t-confidence interval
  • be aware of the robustness of the t-procedures
 
 
HOMEWORK &
readings Chap16
  Practice with exercises: 1,2,6,7,10,11,23,26,27,31,34,35,36 in Chapter 16
 

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded
A summary with computer output for the one sample and matched pairs case



In the Lab in Chapter 16
 A Lab on inference for the mean based on 4 exercises from the book. It reviews test of hypothesis and confidence intervals for the population mean , both when we know sigma and when we don't know it (including matched pairs)
Lab inference
It uses the data files  boneloss.mtw  
redwine.mtw and genvsref.mtw
(those data files are also in the CD that comes with the book ex13-13.mtp, ex16-06.mtp, and ta16-04.mtp)

In the classroom
Chapter 16


 
CHAPTER 18  (might be covered before Chapter 16)
INFERENCE ABOUT A POPULATION PROPORTION
 

Skills in Chapter 18
After studying these chapter, you should : 
  •  be informed about the sampling distribution of the sample proportion
  • know how to calculate a confidence interval for the population proportion (normal aprox.) and be aware of its limitations and possible ways of handle those limitations
  • be able to calculate the appropriate sample size when the purpose of the study is to estimate the population proportion, given the desired confidence and precision (margin of error)
  • know how to perform tests of hypotheses a