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The projection of enrollment for future semesters is desired to facilitate sound management decisions related to University planning for reaching goals, for allocation of resources, and for fiscal soundness. Because enrollment and retention of students are the primary building blocks for our institutional endeavors, enrollment is a critical component to study, use, and track over time.
To estimate enrollment, ETSU is using a model which looks at recruitment and retention scenarios to help determine how far from a pre-defined enrollment goal the next enrollment figures are at various points-in-time during enrollment periods. In addition, the model may be refined and used to assist colleges with enrollment planning and projections as well.
To predict enrollment, The Markov Chain Model is being used. The model looks at past practice to predict future outcomes. It tracks students, by status, from one year to another, allows for a calculation of a recruitment rate or a dropout rate, and through the use of consistent formulas determines a prediction of future enrollments.
Enrollment Projection Models - The Markov Chain